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20120731
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. i talked to somebody in washington yesterday looking at a cnn article that discussed eight different ways in which we could get literally 269/269 on the electoral college vote. what do you do then? there are scenarios out there of difficulty in markets. that may show up again in november. >> if one believes that we are to get to 1,425 on the s&p 500, is it through the rally that we've seen in dividend-paying stocks, which are trading at a premium to the rest of the market or do we need to see a rotation out of them? >> dividends have always been an important part of stocks. we really forgot that in the late 1990s when it was all about the tech stocks. half the return in stocks over the last 100 years have come from dividends. and you have baby boomers who need income. when you look at the s&p 100 yielding 2.8%, 2.9% versus the ten-year treasury at 1.40, maybe they should trade at a premium. this idea of just because the valuation is lower, we should buy one or the other -- i used to buy cyclicals. you sold them at low p/es. never bought them at low p/es. that's not generally a good s
the leadership on friday. you don't want merck to be the leader. gilead and jell cnn were strong and amgen. and then starbucks blew up. it was a terrible quarter. >> but the leaders have been the companies that have been largely domestic, though not entirely. kimberly clark sells plenty of diapers all over the world and have a very significant dividend. we hit 1.55 on the ten-year. the yield is soaring. >> you can't own the ten-year because that's where -- everyone owns the ten-year. how many years have we -- have people said that's the most dangerous piece of paper in the world? i wish that the stocks i follow were as dangerous as the ten-year. >> right. >> well, europe, of course, still will have an impact over here. european stocks extending last week's rallies. spanish bonds falling today and falling fast over the last week, as eu leaders send more signals they are prepared to tack it will debt crisis. jean-claude junker says leaders will decide in the coming day what is measures to take after mario draghi said the central bank will do whatever it takes to save the euro. tim geithner s
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